Prediksi Dampak Pembangunan Jalan Tol Trans Sumatera Pada Permintaan Perjalanan Udara Antar Provinsi di Pulau Sumatera
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29103/tj.v14i2.1188Keywords:
Stated Preference, Multinomial Logit Model, Trans Sumatera Toll Road, Air DemandAbstract
Abstrak
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi perpindahan perjalanan penumpang udara ke kendaraan bermotor akibat pembangunan jalan Tol Trans Sumatera dan kenaikan harga tiket pesawat. Rute Bandar Lampung - Palembang, Pekanbaru - Padang, dan Medan - Aceh dianalisis sebagai rute yang paling representatifmenggambarkan situasi di Pulau Sumatera. Studi ini berfokus pada perjalanan antar kota dengan maksud perjalanan bisnis dan non bisnis. Variabel yang digunakan dalam studi ini yaitu waktu perjalanan, waktu tunggu, biaya perjalanan, tingkat keamanan, dan tingkat kenyamanan. Sebagai alat pengumpulan data digunakan teknik Stated Preference (SP) dan multinomial logit model untuk metodologi analisis. Model yang didapatkan menunjukan biaya perjalanan dan waktu perjalanan merupakan variabel yang paling signifikan. Model ini juga menegaskan bahwa Jalan Tol Trans Sumatera berdampak pada penurunan permintaan perjalanan udara di Pulau Sumatera. Selain itu pelaku perjalanan non bisnis lebih mudah untuk berpindah moda dibandingkan dengan perjalanan bisnis. Penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa penumpang pesawat bersifat inelastik terkait perubahan waktu tempuh dan biaya perjalanan.
Kata kunci: Stated Preference, Multinomial Logit Model, Jalan Tol Trans Sumatera, Permintaan Perjalanan Udara
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the factors that affect the potential transfer from air travel demand to the motorized vehicles due to the Trans Sumatra Toll Road construction and the increase in air ticket prices. Bandar Lampung - Palembang, Pekanbaru - Padang, and Medan - Aceh routes were assigned as the most representative routes for evaluating demand distribution in Sumatra. This study focuses on inter-city travel with business and non-business travel. The variables used in this study are travel time, time for waiting for the mode, travel costs, security level, and comfort level. To collect the data Stade Preference (SP) and multinomial logit model were used for the analysis. The model shows that travel costs and time are the most significant variables. This model also confirms that the Trans Sumatra Toll Road impacts decreasing demand for air travel on Sumatra Island. In addition, non-business travellers are more accessible to change modes than business trips. This research found that air passengers were inelastic related to changes in travel time and travel costs.
Keywords: Stated Preference, Multinomial Logit Model, Trans Sumatera Toll Road, Air Demand
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