Prediksi Dampak Pembangunan Jalan Tol Trans Sumatera Pada Permintaan Perjalanan Udara Antar Provinsi di Pulau Sumatera

Andry Yuliyanto; Kirtinanda P; Ariel Krisar Abyasa; M Reno Pranata

doi:10.29103/tj.v14i2.1188

Prediksi Dampak Pembangunan Jalan Tol Trans Sumatera Pada Permintaan Perjalanan Udara Antar Provinsi di Pulau Sumatera

Andry Yuliyanto, Kirtinanda P, Ariel Krisar Abyasa, M Reno Pranata

Abstract

Abstrak

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi perpindahan perjalanan penumpang udara ke kendaraan bermotor akibat pembangunan jalan Tol Trans Sumatera dan kenaikan harga tiket pesawat. Rute Bandar Lampung – Palembang, Pekanbaru – Padang, dan Medan – Aceh dianalisis sebagai rute yang paling representatifmenggambarkan situasi di Pulau Sumatera. Studi ini berfokus pada perjalanan antar kota dengan maksud perjalanan bisnis dan non bisnis. Variabel yang digunakan dalam studi ini yaitu waktu perjalanan, waktu tunggu, biaya perjalanan, tingkat keamanan, dan tingkat kenyamanan. Sebagai alat pengumpulan data digunakan teknik Stated Preference (SP) dan multinomial logit model untuk metodologi analisis. Model yang didapatkan menunjukan biaya perjalanan dan waktu perjalanan merupakan variabel yang paling signifikan. Model ini juga menegaskan bahwa Jalan Tol Trans Sumatera berdampak pada penurunan permintaan perjalanan udara di Pulau Sumatera. Selain itu pelaku perjalanan non bisnis lebih mudah untuk berpindah moda dibandingkan dengan perjalanan bisnis. Penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa penumpang pesawat bersifat inelastik terkait perubahan waktu tempuh dan biaya perjalanan.

Kata kunci: Stated Preference, Multinomial Logit Model, Jalan Tol Trans Sumatera, Permintaan Perjalanan Udara

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the factors that affect the potential transfer from air travel demand to the motorized vehicles due to the Trans Sumatra Toll Road construction and the increase in air ticket prices. Bandar Lampung – Palembang, Pekanbaru – Padang, and Medan – Aceh routes were assigned as the most representative routes for evaluating demand distribution in Sumatra. This study focuses on inter-city travel with business and non-business travel. The variables used in this study are travel time, time for waiting for the mode, travel costs, security level, and comfort level. To collect the data Stade Preference (SP) and multinomial logit model were used for the analysis. The model shows that travel costs and time are the most significant variables. This model also confirms that the Trans Sumatra Toll Road impacts decreasing demand for air travel on Sumatra Island. In addition, non-business travellers are more accessible to change modes than business trips. This research found that air passengers were inelastic related to changes in travel time and travel costs.

Keywords: Stated Preference, Multinomial Logit Model, Trans Sumatera Toll Road, Air Demand

Keywords

Stated Preference, Multinomial Logit Model, Trans Sumatera Toll Road, Air Demand

Full Text:

PDF

References

Achmad, D., & Hamzani, U. (2015). The Role Of Regional Superior Sectors In Creating GDP Value Added, Employment Opportunity, Regional Productivity And Human Development Index. Procedia - Social And Behavioral Sciences, 211, 953–959. Https://Doi.Org/10.1016/J.Sbspro.2015.11.126

Al-Salih, W. Q., & Esztergár-Kiss, D. (2021). Linking Mode Choice With Travel Behavior By Using Logit Model Based On Utility Function. Sustainability 2021, Vol. 13, Page 4332, 13(8), 4332. Https://Doi.Org/10.3390/SU13084332

Bierlaire, M. (2020). A Short Introduction To Pandasbiogeme. A Short Introduction To Pandasbiogeme.

Friederich, M. C., & Van Leeuwen, T. (2017). A Review Of The History Of Coal Exploration, Discovery And Production In Indonesia: The Interplay Of Legal Framework, Coal Geology And Exploration Strategy. International Journal Of Coal Geology, 178, 56–73. Https://Doi.Org/10.1016/J.Coal.2017.04.007

Hassler, E., Corre, M. D., Kurniawan, S., & Veldkamp, E. (2017). Soil Nitrogen Oxide Fluxes From Lowland Forests Converted To Smallholder Rubber And Oil Palm Plantations In Sumatra, Indonesia. Biogeosciences, 14(11), 2781–2798. Https://Doi.Org/10.5194/Bg-14-2781-2017

Illahi, U., & Mir, M. S. (2020). Development Of Indices For Sustainability Of Transportation Systems: A Review Of State-Of-The-Art. Ecological Indicators, 118, 106760. Https://Doi.Org/10.1016/J.ECOLIND.2020.106760

Indriany, S., Widyantoro, A., & W, I. W. (2019). Analisis Pemilihan Moda Dengan Model Multinomial Logit Untuk Perjalanan Kerja Dari Kota Tangerang Selatan-Dki Jakarta. Portal: Jurnal Teknik Sipil, 10(1). Https://Doi.Org/10.30811/PORTAL.V10I1.972

Kacker, R. N., Lagergren, E. S., & Filliben, J. J. (1991). Taguchi’s Orthogonal Arrays Are Classical Designs Of Experiments. Journal Of Research Of The National Institute Of Standards And Technology, 96(5), 577. Https://Doi.Org/10.6028/JRES.096.034

Koppelman, F. S., & Bhat, C. (2006). A Self Instructing Course In Mode Choice Modeling: Multinomial And Nested Logit Models.

Kumar, S., & Sinha, S. (2022). Heterogeneity Based Mode Choice Behaviour For Introduction Of Sustainable Intermediate Public Transport (IPT) Modes. Civil Engineering Journal, 8(3), 531–548. Https://Doi.Org/10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-03-09

Lin, X., Susilo, Y. O., Shao, C., & Liu, C. (2018). The Implication Of Road Toll Discount For Mode Choice: Intercity Travel During The Chinese Spring Festival Holiday. Sustainability (Switzerland), 10(8). Https://Doi.Org/10.3390/Su10082700

Mustain, I. (2015). Kemampuan Membaca Dan Interpretasi Grafik Dan Data: Studi Kasus Pada Siswa Kelas 8 SMPN Iing Mustain. SCIENTIAE EDUCATIA, 5(2). Www.Syekhnurjati.Ac.Id

Ortúzar, J. De D., & Willumsen, L. G. (2011). Modelling Transport. Modelling Transport. Https://Doi.Org/10.1002/9781119993308

Sugiyanto, G., & Sugiyanto. (2009). Elastisitas Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Permintaan Kebutuhan Angkutan Umum Di London Dan Yogyakarta. In Jurnal Transportasi (Vol. 9, Issue 1).

Wells, G. Ronald. (1975). Comprehensive Transport Planning. 147.

Zhuk, M., Pivtorak, H., Kovalyshyn, V., & Gits, I. (2020). Development Of A Multinomial Logitmodel To Choose A Transportation Mode For Intercity Travel. Eastern-European Journal Of Enterprise Technologies, 3(3–105), 69–77. Https://Doi.Org/10.15587/1729-4061.2020.205868

Hensher, D. A., & Stopher, P. R. (1979). Behavioural travel modelling (1st ed.). Routlegde. https://www.routledge.com/Behavioural-Travel-Modelling/Hensher-Stopher/p/book/9780367741020

Hobbs, F. D. (Frederick D. (1979). Traffic planning and engineering. Pergamon Press. http://www.sciencedirect.com:5070/book/9780080226972/traffic-planning-and-engineering

Kartomi, M. (2012). Musical journeys in Sumatra. University of Illinois Press.

Kenneth A. Small. (2013). Regional and Urban Economics Parts 1 & 2. In Regional and Urban Economics Parts 1. Taylor and Francis. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315077161

Louviere, J. J., Hensher, D. A., & Swait, J. D. (2000a). Stated Choice Methods: Analysis and Applications. Cambridge University Press. https://books.google.co.id/books?hl=en&lr=&id=nk8bpTjutPQC&oi=fnd&pg=PR9&dq=stated+choice+methods+analysis+and+applications&ots=WCSlejglo9&sig=Xg6RHc8iko2huRC-rVXhvZSukII&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=stated%20choice%20methods%20analysis%20and%20applications&f=false

Shang, L., & Chandra, Y. (2023). An Overview of Stated Preference Methods: What and Why. In Discrete Choice Experiments Using R (pp. 1–7). Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-4562-7_1

Taaffe, E. J., Gauthier, H. L., & O`Kelly, M. (1996). Geography of Transportation (Second Edition). Prentice-Hall. https://books.google.co.id/books?hl=en&lr=&id=N60qf7WynaEC&oi=fnd&pg=PR1&dq=taaffe+four+step+model&ots=TRd_7IyMFp&sig=qKcT4KI6Wb_-tKwfFwiuySoNYT4&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=taaffe%20four%20step%20model&f=false

Tamin, O. Z. (2000). Perencanaan dan pemodelan transportasi. Penerbit ITB.

Uncles, M. D. (1987). Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand. In Journal of the Operational Research Society (Vol. 38, Issue 4). Taylor & Francis. https://doi.org/10.1057/JORS.1987.63

DOI: https://doi.org/10.29103/tj.v14i2.1188