Pemodelan Numerik Dampak Perubahan Iklim terhadap Pergerakan dan Dinamika Garis Pantai di Susoh, Aceh
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29103/tj.v16i1.1357Keywords:
Coastal erosion, coastal mitigation, morfac, numerical modeling, climate changeAbstract
Abstrak
Wilayah pesisir memiliki potensi besar bagi pembangunan ekonomi, sosial, dan ekologi, namun pemanfaatannya masih terbatas dan menghadapi tekanan lingkungan yang meningkat. Di Provinsi Aceh, kawasan pesisir semakin rentan akibat perubahan iklim dan aktivitas manusia yang memicu kenaikan muka air laut, peningkatan frekuensi badai, abrasi, serta banjir rob. Salah satu wilayah yang terdampak adalah Pantai Susoh di Kabupaten Aceh Barat Daya yang memiliki fungsi penting sebagai kawasan wisata dan religius. Namun, abrasi terjadi hampir setiap tahun dan pada Oktober 2023 gelombang pasang akibat anomali iklim merusak lebih dari selusin rumah penduduk. Kondisi ini diperparah oleh banjir rob yang dipengaruhi penurunan muka tanah pasca gempa 2004. Penelitian ini menggunakan pemodelan numerik dengan metode morphological scale factor (morfac) untuk menganalisis kondisi eksisting dan memprediksi dinamika morfologi pantai jangka panjang. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan tren erosi berkelanjutan hingga 50 tahun mendatang dengan kemunduran garis pantai rata-rata ±200,19 m. Oleh karena itu, strategi mitigasi berbasis struktur pantai dan rehabilitasi ekosistem diperlukan untuk mengurangi risiko abrasi dan mendukung pengelolaan pesisir yang berkelanjutan.
Kata kunci: erosi pantai, mitigasi pesisir, morfac, pemodelan numerik, perubahan iklim
Abstrack
Coastal areas have significant potential for economic, social, and ecological development; however, their utilization remains limited and increasingly pressured by environmental changes. In Aceh Province, coastal regions are becoming more vulnerable due to climate change and human activities that contribute to sea level rise, increased storm frequency, coastal erosion, and tidal flooding. One of the affected areas is Susoh Beach in Southwest Aceh Regency, which plays an important role as a tourism and religious area. However, coastal erosion occurs almost every year, and in October 2023 storm surges triggered by climate anomalies damaged more than a dozen houses. This condition is further exacerbated by tidal flooding influenced by land subsidence following the 2004 earthquake. This study employs numerical modeling using the morphological scale factor (morfac) method to analyze existing conditions and predict long-term coastal morphological dynamics. The simulation results indicate a continuous erosion trend over the next 50 years, with an average shoreline retreat of approximately ±200.19 m. Therefore, mitigation strategies based on coastal protection structures and ecosystem rehabilitation are necessary to reduce erosion risk and support sustainable coastal management.
Keywords: Coastal erosion, coastal mitigation, morfac, numerical modeling, climate change
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