Pengembangan Model AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) untuk Prediksi Keberlanjutan Lingkungan dan Konstruksi Pesisir Terintegrasi di Pelabuhan Belawan
Pengembangan Model ARIMA untuk Prediksi Keberlanjutan Lingkungan dan Konstruksi Pesisir: Studi Kasus Terintegrasi di Pelabuhan Belawan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29103/tj.v15i2.1291Keywords:
ARIMA Model, Environmental Sustainability, Coastal Construction, Belawan PortAbstract
Abstrak
Wilayah pesisir Pelabuhan Belawan, Sumatera Utara, memainkan peran strategis dalam mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional, khususnya di sektor logistik dan ekspor-impor. Namun, intensifikasi aktivitas industri dan pelabuhan telah menimbulkan tekanan signifikan terhadap lingkungan dan daya tahan infrastruktur pesisir. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan model prediktif berbasis ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) untuk memproyeksikan keberlanjutan lingkungan dan konstruksi pesisir secara terintegrasi. Data deret waktu tahunan yang mencakup variabel lingkungan (curah hujan, kualitas air) dan teknis konstruksi (usia struktur, frekuensi perawatan, kerusakan) dianalisis untuk mengidentifikasi tren dan pola jangka panjang yang berpotensi memengaruhi keberlanjutan sistem pelabuhan. Hasil uji Augmented Dickey-Fuller menunjukkan bahwa hampir seluruh variabel bersifat stasioner kecuali usia struktur yang memerlukan diferensiasi. Model AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (2,1,2) menunjukkan performa terbaik untuk sebagian besar variabel berdasarkan evaluasi AIC, BIC, RMSE, MAE, dan MAPE, sementara AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (3,2,4) optimal untuk usia struktur. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa pendekatan ARIMA mampu secara efektif menangkap dinamika perubahan lingkungan dan teknis di wilayah pesisir Belawan, serta mendukung pengambilan keputusan adaptif dalam perencanaan pengelolaan pelabuhan berkelanjutan.
Kata kunci: Model ARIMA, Keberlanjutan Lingkungan, Konstruksi Pesisir, Pelabuan Belawan
Abstract
The coastal region of Belawan Port, North Sumatra, plays a strategic role in supporting national economic growth, particularly in the logistics and export-import sectors. However, the intensification of industrial and port activities has imposed significant pressure on the environment and the resilience of coastal infrastructure. This study aims to develop an ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average)-based predictive model to project the sustainability of environmental conditions and coastal construction in an integrated manner. Annual time series data covering environmental variables (rainfall, water quality) and technical construction aspects (structure age, maintenance frequency, damage) were analyzed to identify long-term trends and patterns potentially affecting the sustainability of the port system. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test results indicate that nearly all variables are stationary, except for structural age, which required differencing. The AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (2,1,2) model demonstrated the best performance for most variables based on evaluations of AIC, BIC, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE, while AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (3,2,4) was optimal for structural age. These findings suggest that the ARIMA approach can effectively capture the dynamic environmental and technical changes in the Belawan coastal area and support adaptive decision-making in sustainable port management planning.
Keywords: ARIMA Model, Environmental Sustainability, Coastal Construction, Belawan Port
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